Residential Build Out in Summit County

Have you found yourself looking around Summit County and wondering just how much more it can grow, how much more can be built before no space to build upon remains? The Summit County Planning Department conducted what is called a Residential Buildout Analysis to attempt to answer those questions. The study provided actual and projected numbers for how much development has occurred and how much remains to be built.

The most recent Buildout Analysis was updated December 31, 2019, before anyone knew what was about to happen in the world. While it would be ideal to have a study dated as recent as yesterday, 2020 was a year of disruptions. The Buildout Analysis wasn’t really on anyone’s mind last year. Regardless, the hard data in the 2019 study remains the same and in the light of our current market with historically low inventory, the projections are of relevant interest.

Per the Countywide Comprehensive Plan, Summit County has an agreement with the Town of Breckenridge (and continues to work with the towns of Blue River, Silverthorne, Dillon and Frisco) to have limits and caps on new density on unincorporated lands. In other words, density limit planning is already in place. The sky is not the limit when it comes to building in Summit County.
The Residential Buildout Analysis is broken out into two categories: absolute build-out and realistic build-out.

Absolute build out is the total of units built to date, remaining units to be built, and additional units that could be built through subdivision to maximum density allowed under zoning regulations. The absolute buildout was determined to be 42,751 units. As of December 31, 2019, there were 31,892 units already built in Summit County.
Absolute buildout is a bit fluid and several factors can potentially increase that number in Summit County including future land trades with the US Forest Service and changes in allowed to density for future affordable housing developments.

Realistic build-out represents a more likely picture of buildout that may occur in Summit County. Absolute buildout will unlikely be achieved due to backcountry parcels that are not readily accessible or constrained by wetlands, steep slopes, lack of water rights, private property owners choosing not to develop their property, conservation easements, and private properties acquired for open space preservation. The realistic buildout is 39,258 units or 81% of all property zoned residential in Summit County.

When the inevitable day comes that available vacant properties cease to exist, there will be an increase in raze and rebuilds, infill or land recycling developments. The latter is typically for the purpose of maximizing density.

With an increase in units built comes an increase in population. If it feels like the population is already exploding in 2021, it may help to look back at population history. In the 1970s, Summit County was considered to be the fastest growing county in the United States with a whopping 232% increase in the permanent resident population. From 2000 to 2019, population growth was slow ranging from 11-18%. As technology advances the ability to telecommute, personal wealth increases and more Americans choose a change in lifestyle, the population in desirable areas will continue to grow. Like it or not, Summit County is due for a growth spurt, but thankfully not at the rate it grew in the 1970s, mostly in part due to rising cost and lack of affordable development.

According to the Colorado State Demographer, the Summit County population is estimated to rise to 38,000-40,000 by 2030, up from the last count of 30,983 in December 2019.

Do you have a dream or goal for a new build in Summit County? For more information on available lots, parcels or new developments, talk to an expert at Breckenridge Associates. Our agents know every corner of our mountain community and how to manage the intricacies involved in a climate of high demand for prime real estate. You are always invited to stop by our office on Main Street in the heart of Breckenridge or contact us by phone or email.

Sources:
https://www.summitcountyco.gov/244/Residential-Build-Out
https://www.townofbreckenridge.com/home/showpublisheddocument/1519/637344772998830000